Winning is a maths problem.
Every match, race and rally reduced to the equations that decide it. Fitted on fifty thousand real matches across thirteen leagues, checked against the closing line every week, written up so you can licence the models, taught so you can build them yourself, and turned into games you can lose to.
Where do you want to start?
Play against the models, price a match, trade one on paper, read the specification of every model in the library, learn to build them in the Academy, or sit back and watch the films.
Play
Six games where the model is the opponent. Manage a real match, take ten penalties against a keeper who learns, pace an 800 m.
Enter the arena →Predict
Pick two teams. Every market, fair prices, the confidence band and the words that explain it.
Price a match →Live
This week's fixtures, the tables, the tennis draws and the NBA slate, each with the model's number beside the market's.
See the week →Lab
Sixteen live models with sliders. Move a parameter and watch the optimal strategy move with it.
Open the lab →Films
Twenty-two short films, six of them in 3D, and three flight explorers with wind and altitude on the sliders.
Watch →Factors
Weather at the ground, altitude, the crowd, the journey, gear and fuelling. Each one graded by its evidence, each one a toggle on the price.
Stack them →Quant Library
Nineteen models written up properly: what goes in, what it does, what comes out, what it was measured at, and where it stops being trustworthy. Free to read, licensed to use.
Read the specs → GearWhat the kit is worth
Shoes, spikes, rackets, strings, suits and balls, brand by brand, measured by the papers, modelled by the physics, priced as a chance of winning.
Compare the kit →Trade
The model's price beside the market's on every fixture, Kelly-sized paper tickets, and a walk-forward that says plainly whether any of it beats not betting.
Open the desk →Academy
Six courses that teach the maths on this site, with figures drawn from the live models, worked examples and a certificate that verifies.
Start learning →Library
Five books, the validation report, model cards and league data sheets as PDFs, certifications, and the model licences.
Browse →The equations
Forty equations, each with a picture that moves. Fitted, physics, literature or solved: the grade is on the card.
Watch them →Pricing
Free for fans. The engine by the call for licensed operators, with the same maths at every tier.
See the tiers →The equations that decide it
Nothing here is a hunch. Each model is written down, fitted on results, and scored against the closing line. These are the six that do the most work.
Goals are Poisson arrivals
Fitted on every result since 2014, blended with shots on target because shots are a less noisy signal than goals.
The chase is real
Second-half scoring by half-time score, after controlling for how good both sides are. A side one goal down scores faster; a side ahead barely slows. The Manager game runs on this.
When to press, when to park
Chase variance when you are behind, kill it when ahead, time the switch by the clock. Try to beat it in the Manager game.
A 2% edge becomes 25%
Morris importance says which points matter. Spend your big serves there. Break Point tests whether you do.
Pace is a store, not a feeling
Split Second lets you set your own splits against the optimal ghost and watch the store drain.
The rim is bigger from above
The same integrator bends the free kick round the wall and dips the kick serve inside the line. See it in 3D on Films.
Checked against the market
A model that never meets the closing line is a story. Ours is scored on every match it did not see, and the report says where it wins and where it does not.
One method, five arenas
Football
Dixon–Coles with time decay and shots, contextual effects, referee tendencies, state-space form, style clusters, game-state effects, the strategy solver, pitch control, penalties as a game, free-kick flight.
Tennis
Nested Markov chain, Morris point importance, live ratings from this season's tour results, serve flight with topspin.
Basketball
Expected points per shot location, possession value, endgame decision trees, Pythagorean expectation, the forgiving arc.
Athletics & Olympics
Keller optimal pacing, Banister fitness–fatigue and the taper, medal-table allocation by marginal return.